Developing the Almaty Agglomeration

More than 3.5 million people already live in the Almaty agglomeration, and by 2030 that figure will most likely reach 4 million. Cities and urban agglomerations with more than 3 million people are already becoming self-sufficient and can develop and exist entirely without outside support. Almaty is just such a city: its contribution to GDP, its per capita income and its regional budget revenues confirm that it is fully self-sufficient. As is well known, it is very important for a country to develop its megacities, because, thanks to higher labor productivity, their contribution to the national economy is significantly greater than that of other regions. I have written before that transaction costs in a city are considerably lower, the logistics cost of delivery is also lower, and the labor market is more developed. People who enter an urban environment become more productive through competition.

It is therefore critically important for the state to pay attention to the development of large cities, and the effect of investment will be plain to see in growing tax payments. Kazakhstan now has three megacities, and Almaty remains the most developed of them, but the city has many infrastructure and environmental problems that demand immediate attention. Everyone knows what they are, and I will not list them. What seems to me more important today is housing construction. Housing prices in Almaty are among the highest not only in Kazakhstan but in the whole of Central Asia, and in the upper part of the city they can compete with those of the world's major metropolises. This is a serious barrier to the city's further growth. I see every scrap of land in the city being built up, and the higher the building, the higher the price. Clearly, the city has nowhere left to grow, and its own resources are limited. Yet without construction, the city's development will stall. Solving this problem requires building infrastructure and expanding the city, as was done ten years ago, when part of the territory of Almaty Region was annexed. It seems to me that without expanding the city's boundaries it will be extremely difficult to ensure its growth. We should look at those settlements that have, one way or another, already become part of the city; there is enough such land to provide the necessary land stock. It is much easier for Almaty to find money to develop these areas and build the necessary infrastructure, because the city itself runs a large budget surplus. We are approaching the point at which the city becomes polycentric, which allows it to develop more or less evenly. Even so, the most pressing issues for Almaty remain the following:

Transport infrastructure. I believe investment in the metro and rail transport should be increased many times over, and the goal should be to connect the suburbs to the metro.

Utility networks. These include electricity, gas and water supply, which are the main prerequisites for building new housing. Investment in this infrastructure will attract more construction companies and increase competition, which will bring sale prices down.

Social infrastructure. Schools, hospitals, cultural facilities, parks and so on. This, too, is a state mandate, and without it separate districts are hard to create.

Renovation of dilapidated housing. This requires a dedicated state program, which should improve not only the housing stock but also the quality of life, with parking, parks and public spaces. Unfortunately, not all Soviet-era buildings can be called architectural masterpieces.

Integrated development of districts. The aim is to build not just houses but lifestyle districts that form a distinct ecosystem with their own character, which would resolve many problems, including those of the state. For example, the state now builds social housing that is cheap and poorly made, with no public spaces, creating districts without infrastructure. It would be more sensible to collaborate with large construction companies and use the same money to buy, in a developed district, a share of the housing for those on the waiting list. There the state would help with infrastructure, parks, schools and hospitals (which it would have had to build in social housing districts anyway), and people would end up in a good district and, most importantly, in the right environment.

Generally speaking, I think the world has accumulated enormous experience in how to develop megacities properly, and AI makes it possible to analyze the best of it fairly quickly and thoroughly and to apply all that is best.