I'm Writing an Unpopular Post About the LRT
Translated from Russian with the help of AI. Original: Russian version
A defense of Astana's LRT: the main losses stemmed from a bank's bankruptcy, while urban transport delivers a multiplier effect for the development of a metropolis.
For many people, the LRT is synonymous with corruption and inefficiency, but I would like to look at the issue more pragmatically.
First, as I understand it, the bulk of the money was lost not because someone stole it during construction, but because the company placed the entire sum with Astana Bank, which subsequently went bankrupt, and the funds could not be recovered. In this respect, the core problem was risk management. How the money ended up there is something that probably needs to be investigated, but many others were caught in the same way, including state holdings, where risk management had been built up over the years with the help of consultants, and yet few people were punished.
Second, a project like this usually undergoes expert review of its construction costs, and when such facilities are being designed, it is difficult to inflate the cost, because prices for each volume of work are laid out in reference catalogues. One can change the project itself and the materials to make it cheaper, but lowering the prices of works and materials at the design stage is very hard.
Third, Astana has an extremely harsh climate, and it is logical to compare the cost of such a facility with construction costs in similar climatic conditions rather than with other projects. The project must therefore account for all factors, climate included.
Astana is already home to 1.5 million people, and the city continues to grow. That means it will be extremely hard to do without urban transport such as a metro, LRT or trams if we want Astana to develop as a true metropolis.
I remember everyone criticizing the Almaty metro as a very expensive project, one designed only for tourists, and so on. Today the metro has become one of the city's main transport arteries, and each new station increases passenger traffic exponentially. The areas around metro stations are becoming sub-centers and are developing rapidly. The effect of the metro is enormous; this project should be developed further and construction should be accelerated, because the metro has a multiplier effect.
The same awaits Astana. The LRT should become the transport artery that relieves the roads, creates hubs of attraction around its stations and gives a multiplier effect to the city's development. The economic payback of such a project cannot be calculated directly; what matters is the effect on the city's economy. The development of cities and agglomerations is a global trend. The growth of an urban agglomeration generates far more economic growth than any state program in rural areas, and to stimulate urban development, it is critically important to develop urban infrastructure, of which transport is the most important part.
So, in my opinion, the LRT should be completed sooner. Changes may be made to reflect the current realities of the city's development, but the launch of the LRT will give an additional boost to the city's growth.