Breaking Down the Structure of Deposits
Translated from Russian with the help of AI. Original: Russian version
The growth in tenge deposits is driven by accrued interest and by migrants, while large depositors are moving their money out of the country.
Any set of figures can be read in different ways, especially when the data is public.
Looking at the data on the structure of deposits, we are seemingly shown that the dollarization of deposits is falling, and that is indeed the case: the share of tenge deposits in the total has now reached 74%. But it is important to understand what has driven this increase in tenge deposits, and for that we need to look at other figures besides the structure itself.
As I see it, the situation is as follows:
Because interest rates on tenge deposits have risen, the nominal amount has grown by the size of the interest rate. In other words, the 14% growth does not reflect new deposits; it is an increase from accrued interest.
Foreign currency deposits, which earn a rate of 1%, have little room to grow through interest income.
There has been a large influx of Russians, who brought a huge inflow of ruble liquidity, but they converted it into tenge and dollars almost immediately upon arrival.
Our own residents, meanwhile, are moving money abroad because of the low interest rates, so it looks as though one group has simply replaced the other.
My conclusion, therefore, is roughly this: tenge deposits are growing because of high interest rates; dollar deposits are not shrinking because of migrants; and our large depositors are moving their money abroad, where returns are higher and it is safer.